Guizhou Moutai (600519) Quick Review of Important Events: Q2 Predicts Increase in Speed, Demand, Demand, and Prices Keep Strong

Guizhou Moutai (600519) Quick Review of Important Events: Q2 Predicts Increase in Speed, Demand, Demand, and Prices Keep Strong
Event: The company announced that after preliminary accounting, in the first half of 2019, the company completed the production of Moutai base wine3.44, this series of wine-based wine production1.In 2009, the company achieved total operating revenue of 41.2 billion yuan, an annual increase of 16.9%, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies is $ 19.9 billion, an annual increase of 26.2%. Guoxin’s point of view: We believe that the target for the growth of the second quarter report is the adjustment of the company’s channel system, which is caused by uncertain factors in the pace of issuance and confirmation, but does not affect the company’s long-term logic. That is, Moutai will maintain a tight balance between supply and demand in the market. It is expected that the grant price will remainFirmly, the company as a liquor leader has been able to reap the capabilities and advantages of stable development space by adjusting the proportion of non-standard products and channel structure optimization, and has long-term value.The EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 33.56/38.82/44.56 yuan, corresponding to 29/25/22 times PE, the one-year target is estimated to be 1165 yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating. Opinion: Notice the growth rate, the pace of confirmation during the channel adjustment period has improved, and the terminal demand approval price is still strong. According to calculations, Maotai Q2 achieved a total income of 18.7 billion and an increase of about 11%, which is attributed to its net profit of 86.800 billion yuan increased by about 20%, the growth rate has dropped somewhat from Q1, and the goal of more than half of the time has been achieved. The company requires dealers to implement the 3rd and 4th quarter payment plans in advance. The market believes that the pace of confirmation will also accelerate accordingly. It is expected that Q2The growth rate of the report fell due to the high base of the same period last year, the confirmation of the pace adjustment and the recent impact of 成都桑拿网 some dealers. During the channel rectification and the company’s leadership change, the report growth rate has improved. It is recommended to judge the actual results and advance receipts in the interim report.Channel research shows that the demand for Moutai currently is about 2050-2100 yuan, and the issuance has increased from April and May. The off-season is not off. After the speech of Secretary Baofang in June, the approval price gradually stabilized, and in JulySince the supply of goods has been tight, the Mid-Autumn Festival market has started in advance, and the shipment has gradually entered the peak season. According to the speech, the sales volume should exceed 1 at the end of June.In April and July, the quota was implemented ahead of schedule. The actual shipment of Q2 is expected to increase by 30% in ten years over 7,0杭州桑拿网00 tons.8 It is expected that the market is expected to maintain a tight supply situation, and even if the volume increases, the approval price will vary greatly. Strengthened market confidence, expert culture construction, brand streamlining and adjustments. The company’s previous shareholders ‘meeting actively expressed its confidence in the market. The major shareholders of the company ‘s key marketing companies will not compete with small and medium shareholders. The final plan and results must be law-abiding and meet anti-corruption requirements.It must be to protect shareholders’ rights.Its specific operation mode will communicate with all parties, solicit participation from all parties, and submit it to the EGM election as soon as possible.In addition, the company plans to build two warehouse projects to ensure a stable production rhythm and smooth the impact of the economic cycle.In the near future, dealers will be committed to the construction of cultural Moutai, highlighting that prices should satisfy consumers, not the prices required by manufacturers.In addition, through “slimming and standardization reform”, the overall structure of production and operation was optimized.The Group’s Q1 operating margin has been maximized to increase by 4 units, and the 56 subsidiaries that have been planned for division have been cleared and completed 28, which will be fully completed by the end of September.Brand supervision has been further strengthened, and all subsidiaries’ customization, OEM products, and streamlining of subsidiary brands are expected to continue to increase concentration and operating efficiency; Earnings forecast rating We believe that the supply and demand in the Moutai market will remain tightly balanced, the approval price will continue to rise, and the company’s shipments will be stable. At the same time, it can adjust the product and channel structure to achieve average price increases and higher performance flexibility.The EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 33.56/38.82/44.56 yuan, corresponding to 29/25/22 times PE. The one-year target forecast value is 1165 yuan. Maintaining the “buy” rating risk indicates changes in the industry’s prosperity; slow channel expansion; and capacity building is not up to expectations.

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